5
A Prayer For Kids
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 53
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 05/11/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/05/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 09/06/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 29/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 23/07/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 10/08/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/09/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |