4
Condemnation
7yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 75
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength34%
Delivery trend -6.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/01/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 09/02/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 04/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 13/03/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 09/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 25% | -0.59 |
| 28/07/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 18/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 02/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |