2
Gottomakeithappen
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 62
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength99%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 20/04/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 28/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 03/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 16/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 88% | +0.27 |
| 10/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |