6
Mor Crafty
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 56
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-04 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-18 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength35%
Delivery trend +5.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 14/08/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 27/08/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/11/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/12/2025 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 04/02/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 23/03/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 23/04/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |