1
Mutiny
7yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 64
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength42%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 30/10/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 18/05/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 09/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 29/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 63% | -0.06 |
| 03/08/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 18/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 26/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |