3
Rumble Strip Ron
7yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 73
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength62%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/01/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 12/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 03/04/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 28/04/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 11/05/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 16/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 28/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 25/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |