1
A Van On The Run
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 59
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-10 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-17 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength31%
Delivery trend +3.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 20/10/2025 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 03/11/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 25/11/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 05/02/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 14% | -0.46 |
| 17/02/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 10/03/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 30/03/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 27/05/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |