7
El Marro
9yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 53
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength22%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/03/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 27/03/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 12/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/06/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 12/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/07/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/08/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 18/08/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |