Gray Day
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 73
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
11/8
Win Prob
78%
Place Prob
62%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 29/04/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 29% | -0.57 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 24/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 13/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 03/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 25/08/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 80% | -0.15 |
| 10/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |