4
Lunchatthelizard
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 58
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-09 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-09-18 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength25%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 25/06/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 17/07/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 11/08/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 18/09/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 09/10/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 03/06/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 29/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/07/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |