2
Matthew's Patriot
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 66
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Thistledown | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength92%
Delivery trend +7.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 14% | -0.65 |
| 04/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 13/03/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 13/05/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 29/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 25/08/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 07/09/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |