6
Worthy Opponent
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 68
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-09 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength75%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 27/08/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 18/09/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 09/10/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 27/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 16/06/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 07/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 29/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 26/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |