IvyArcIvyArc
4

Pyramid Scheme

3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 28

Thistledown · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y

#6

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Mahoning Valley 18/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 6f 11818/03C6C6 @ Mahoning Valley 01/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 31 · 6f Slo 118 · beat its mark01/04/2026 · OR 31 par1/04C6OR 31C9 @ Thistledown 21/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 99 · 1m Fas 114 · below its mark21/05/2026 · OR 99 par21/05C9OR 99C6 @ Thistledown 17/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 30 · 1m Fas 119 · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 30 par17/08C6OR 30C6 @ Thistledown 31/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 30 · 1m 119 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 30 par31/08C6OR 30projClass-projected finish: 4th of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Thistledown?8th8th0
2026-08-17Thistledown?7th7th0
2026-05-21Thistledown?2nd5th−3
2026-04-01Mahoning Valley?10th10th0
2026-03-18Mahoning Valley?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/031/0421/0517/0831/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength5%

Delivery trend +3.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/03/20266th7/282%29%-0.53
01/04/202610th9/153%10%-0.43
21/05/20262nd11/271%80%+0.09
17/08/20267th16/116%0%-0.16
31/08/20268th7/163%13%-0.51