3
Storm Search
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 48
Thistledown · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength27%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-02-08 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2025-12-24 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 9th | 12th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength98%
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/12/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 08/02/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/04/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 11/05/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 27/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 07/09/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |