Dream Police

3yo Gelding · 8-5 · OR 55

Thistledown · Race 7 - Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

5/4

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼2

Strength66%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +1.5

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-05-16	Thistledown	?	4th	2nd	+2	7.8
2026-04-29	Thistledown	?	4th	2nd	+2	7.8
2025-10-23	Mahoning Valley	?	10th	8th	+2	1.8
2025-09-12	Thistledown	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +51.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
12/09/2025	5th	11/8	93%	0%	-0.93
23/10/2025	10th	15/2	61%	18%	-0.42
29/04/2026	4th	20/1	0%	25%	+0.25
16/05/2026	4th	33/1	0%	57%	+0.57