1
He's My Boy
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 55
Thistledown · Race 7 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength21%
Delivery trend -4.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/04/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 06/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 27/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 29/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 23/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 09/09/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |