3
Hidden Heart
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 48
Thistledown · Race 7 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/03/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 27/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 30/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 09/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 12/08/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 20/08/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/09/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |