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5

Indy's Hope

5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 34

Thistledown · Race 7 - Claiming · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

88%

Place Prob

67%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength75%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Mahoning Valley 09/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 31 · 6f Slo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/02/2026 · OR 31 par9/02C6OR 31C9 @ Mahoning Valley 24/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 26 · 6f Gd 126 · beat its mark24/02/2026 · OR 26 parC6 @ Mahoning Valley 18/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 25 · 1m 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/03/2026 · OR 25 par18/03C6OR 25C9 @ Thistledown 28/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 29 · 6f Fas 123 · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 29 parC9 @ Thistledown 21/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 33 · 1m Fas 123 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 33 par21/05C9OR 33C6 @ Thistledown 02/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 32 · 1m Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 32 parC6 @ Thistledown 07/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 30 · 1m 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 30 par7/07C6OR 30C5 @ Thistledown 13/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 34 · 1m 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 34 parC5 @ Thistledown 01/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 32 · 1m 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 32 par1/09C5OR 32projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Thistledown?6th3rd+3
2026-08-13Thistledown?7th4th+3
2026-07-07Thistledown?1st-1th+2
2026-06-02Thistledown?3rd1st+2
2026-05-21Thistledown?3rd4th−1
2026-04-28Thistledown?5th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0228/047/071/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength74%

Delivery trend +1.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/02/20267th16/116%14%-0.02
24/02/20266th7/163%44%-0.19
18/03/20269th25/10%0%0.00
28/04/20265th20/10%20%+0.20
21/05/20263rd11/271%60%-0.11
02/06/20263rd11/271%75%+0.04
07/07/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
13/08/20267th12/137%0%-0.37
01/09/20266th20/10%0%0.00