4
Sgt York
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 59
Thistledown · Race 7 - Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-03 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-13 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-16 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength84%
Delivery trend +4.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 15/09/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 06/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 27/10/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 16/12/2025 | 4th | 6/5 | 94% | 57% | -0.37 |
| 13/01/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 12/02/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 03/03/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 09/09/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |