2
Weekend Retreat
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 32
Thistledown · Race 7 - Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-13 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-12-16 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-18 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength24%
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 25/09/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 08/10/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/10/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 18/11/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 16/12/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 13/01/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 20/08/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |