3
Candymonium
7yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 79
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
8/11
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
96%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-18 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09/2025 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 60% | -0.32 |
| 29/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 11/12/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 18/02/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 05/03/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 20% | -0.68 |
| 18/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 09/06/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 22/07/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 01/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |