6
Curls Nite Out
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 73
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-03-20 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-23 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength65%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 29/10/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 27/12/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 23/01/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 12/02/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 82% | +0.24 |
| 25/02/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 90% | +0.74 |
| 20/03/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 08/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 04/05/2026 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 20% | -0.71 |