2
Berry Lancer
3yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 64
Vaal · 4Racing Welcomes You Maiden Plate · 5f 212y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
78%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Vaal | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Vaal | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Vaal | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Turffontein | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Turffontein | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Turffontein | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength91%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/2026 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 30/04/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 07/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 14/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 81% | +0.81 |
| 11/07/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 03/09/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 10/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |