3
Monsieur Shelby
4yo Gelding · 9-6
Vichy · Prix Du Puy Mary Handicap · 1m 3f 204y
#9
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Craon | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Vichy | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Vichy | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Compiegne | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Angers | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Pornichet | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength56%
Delivery trend -8.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2025 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 60% | +0.55 |
| 22/11/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 08/06/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 10/07/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 29% | +0.23 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 14/08/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 05/09/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 73% | +0.18 |