3
Bella Ciao
6yo Mare · 9-5
Vichy · Prix Agent Double Handicap · 1m 3f 204y
#4
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Craon | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Deauville | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Deauville | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Deauville | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Deauville | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | ParisLongchamp | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength92%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 21/04/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 46% | -0.06 |
| 05/06/2026 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |
| 02/07/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 93% | +0.41 |
| 06/08/2026 | 7th | 1/1 | 95% | 54% | -0.41 |
| 11/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 25/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 82% | +0.03 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |