13
Success Story
8yo Mare · 8-12
Vichy · Prix Nature Handicap · 1m 3f 204y
#9
Rank
Odds
17/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Deauville | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Deauville | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Vichy | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Salon-De-Provence | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Salon-De-Provence | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Lyon La Soie | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength56%
Delivery trend -3.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/12/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 16/01/2026 | 12th | 18/1 | 5% | 21% | +0.16 |
| 14/02/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 82% | +0.66 |
| 21/03/2026 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 17/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 70% | +0.44 |
| 30/07/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 43% | -0.18 |
| 11/08/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 36% | -0.37 |
| 25/08/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |