5
Tundra
10yo Mare · 9-5
Vichy · Prix Nature Handicap · 1m 3f 204y
#1
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
98%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | Le Croise-Laroche | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Chantilly | 3 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Lyon La Soie | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-01-08 | Deauville | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-22 | Deauville | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-05 | Pornichet | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 2-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength41%
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2025 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 01/11/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 22/11/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 05/12/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 22/12/2025 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 08/01/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 87% | +0.87 |
| 14/02/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 25/02/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 20/03/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 36% | -0.11 |