8
Birdy Sun
3yo Filly · 8-5
Vichy · Prix De Busset Claiming Stakes · 1m 3f 204y
#5
Rank
Odds
125/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength18%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 8.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Deauville | 4 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-07-26 | Le Touquet | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Vittel | 3 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength12%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/07/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 30/08/2026 | 12th | 125/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |