3
L'abbaye
3yo Filly · 8-11
Vichy · Prix De Busset Claiming Stakes · 1m 3f 204y
#4
Rank
Odds
11/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength62%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.5
Today:
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Vichy | 3 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-07-25 | Vichy | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Compiegne | 2 | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-04-29 | Lyon-Parilly | 2 | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-03-24 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 10th | 6th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength59%
Delivery trend -7.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 24/01/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 15/02/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 75% | +0.20 |
| 24/03/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 29/04/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 09/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 14/08/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 31/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 69% | +0.22 |