Kenzal
8yo Gelding · 10-8
Vichy · Prix De La Source De L'hopital Claiming Stakes · 6f 211y
#4
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 6.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Vichy | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Vichy | 3 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-06-20 | Marseille | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-13 | Vichy | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Marseille-borely | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 21/02/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 85% | +0.29 |
| 09/03/2026 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 85% | +0.48 |
| 13/05/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 20/06/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 42% | +0.26 |
| 25/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 02/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |