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4

King Thistle

4yo Gelding · 10-8 · OR 85

Vichy · Prix De La Source De L'hopital Claiming Stakes · 6f 211y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

24%

Place Prob

27%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA85 @ Dundalk 18/10/2024 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 85 · 7f Std 138 · below its mark18/10/2024 · OR 85 par18/1085OR 85C5 @ Vittel 20/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 85 · 6f101y GS 123 · beat its mark20/07/2025 · OR 85 par3 @ Lyon-Parilly 13/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 85 · 6f156y Ver 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/04/2026 · OR 85 par13/043OR 853 @ ParisLongchamp 07/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 85 · 7f209y Hvy 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 85 par4 @ Chantilly 19/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 85 · 6f211y Ver 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 85 par19/054OR 854 @ ParisLongchamp 28/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 85 · 7f209y GS 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 85 par4 @ Le Touquet 26/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR - · 6f101y Sft 142 · HIGHER CLASS26/0744 @ Vichy 03/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 6f211y Hvy 132 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Saint-Malo 28/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 85 · 1m208y GS 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 85 par28/084OR 85projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28Saint-Malo45th4th+1
2026-08-03Vichy45th4th+1
2026-07-26Le Touquet49th8th+1
2026-05-28ParisLongchamp42nd1st+1
2026-05-19Chantilly42nd1st+1
2026-05-07ParisLongchamp36th4th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/107/0526/0728/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength76%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/10/20247th12/137%54%+0.17
20/07/20253rd6/168%71%+0.03
13/04/20269th33/10%11%+0.11
07/05/20266th18/15%44%+0.39
19/05/20262nd10/147%89%+0.42
28/05/20262nd5/287%83%-0.04
26/07/20269th9/276%33%-0.43
03/08/20265th15/261%64%+0.03
28/08/20265th16/116%64%+0.48