3
Noble Amber
8yo Mare · 10-10
Vichy · Prix De La Source De L'hopital Claiming Stakes · 6f 211y
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength38%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Vichy | 3 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-06-21 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Marseille-borely | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Lyon-Parilly | 3 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-03-15 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength92%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 77% | -0.05 |
| 26/01/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 55% | -0.09 |
| 24/02/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 15/03/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 08/05/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 47% | +0.20 |
| 18/05/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 20/07/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 02/09/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |