5
Larzand
5yo Gelding · 10-7
Vichy · Prix Des Malavaux Stakes · 1m 5f 202y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼4
Strength0%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.2
Today:
Class gap: +4.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | Pau | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-10 | Pau | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-16 | Auteuil | ? | +4 | ||
| 2025-10-07 | Auteuil | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-09 | Auteuil | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-05-17 | Auteuil | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength77%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/2024 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 53% | +0.01 |
| 04/01/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 31/01/2025 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 57% | -0.34 |
| 15/04/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 17/05/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 09/09/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 64% | -0.22 |
| 07/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 10/12/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 85% | +0.00 |
| 16/01/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 55% | -0.22 |