1
Lucky Prince
5yo Gelding · 10-12
Vichy · Prix Des Malavaux Stakes · 1m 5f 202y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
93%
Place Prob
67%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength22%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Vichy | ? | 5th | 0th | +4 |
| 2026-06-21 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Vichy | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-15 | Vichy | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +18.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 24/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 22/07/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |