9
Mea Culpa
4yo Gelding · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Myrrha - Attele · 1m 2f 96y
#11
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Vincennes | 2 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Vincennes | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Vincennes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Vincennes | 18 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Vincennes | 1 | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-09 | Lyon La Soie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 9-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 11/12/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 18/01/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 15/02/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 09/03/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 03/04/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 21/04/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 06/05/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 12/09/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |