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In The Trenches

6yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 112

Warwick · Man Commercial Protection Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 3m

#3

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Belatedly opened account in 19f Downpatrick maiden hurdle in June. Fair runs in handicaps the last twice and of a similar standard over fences. Probably on a fair mark starting out for new yard (bought from Gavin Cromwell 12,500gns last month) but has stamina to prove in first-time tongue tie.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲6
Strength5%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Class-adjusted form 10.7 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C10.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -6.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Clonmel 23/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 113 · 2m205y Yie 166 · below its mark23/10/2025 · OR 113 par23/10C8OR 113BHA115 @ Navan 14/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 115 · 2m Sft 161 · below its mark14/12/2025 · OR 115 parC8 @ Tramore 19/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 112 · 1m7f110y Yie 161 · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 112 par19/04C8OR 112BHA112 @ Wexford 07/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 112 · 2m Goo 168 · below its mark07/05/2026 · OR 112 parBHA111 @ Kilbeggan 15/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 111 · 2m4f90y Gd 166 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 111 par15/05111OR 111C8 @ Clonmel 05/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 108 · 2m113y Goo 158 · below its mark05/06/2026 · OR 108 parC8 @ Downpatrick 14/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 108 · 2m2f185y Gd 166 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 108 par14/06C8OR 108BHA110 @ Kilbeggan 24/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 110 · 2m2f200y Gd 166 · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 110 parBHA108 @ Cork 03/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 108 · 2m1f Goo 158 · below its mark03/08/2026 · OR 108 par3/08108OR 108projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 3
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-03CorkBHA1087th15th−7
2026-07-24KilbegganBHA1104th12th−7
2026-06-30WexfordBHA108−7
2026-06-14Downpatrick?1st6th−4
2026-06-05Clonmel?2nd7th−4
2026-05-15KilbegganBHA1115th14th−7

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/107/0514/063/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 30% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 3. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/10/20252nd3/184%83%-0.01
14/12/20258th16/116%36%+0.21
19/04/20265th15/261%43%-0.18
07/05/20265th10/147%64%+0.16
15/05/20265th10/147%69%+0.22
05/06/20262nd5/287%93%+0.06
14/06/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
24/07/20264th11/142%67%+0.25
03/08/20267th28/10%40%+0.40