1
Kiwi De Cotte
6yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 117
Warwick · Man Commercial Protection Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 3m
#1
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
99%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Bangor-on-Dee | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Market Rasen | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Worcester | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Market Rasen | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Wexford | ? | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 3100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength12%
Delivery trend -27.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 3. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 10/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 71% | -0.19 |
| 15/08/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 04/09/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |