3
Passengerontheship
7yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 108
Warwick · Man Commercial Protection Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 3m
#2
Rank
Odds
11/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Cartmel | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Cartmel | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Cartmel | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Hexham | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Hexham | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Hexham | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 350% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength46%
Delivery trend -6.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 3. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 31/03/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 44% | -0.38 |
| 19/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 20% | -0.72 |
| 31/08/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |