Ballinoulart
8yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 69
Warwick · Molson Coors Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Chase · 2m 4f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Worcester | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Fontwell | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-18 | Market Rasen | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2024-11-04 | Plumpton | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2024-10-14 | Hereford | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +8.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/2024 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 01/06/2024 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 77% | -0.02 |
| 25/06/2024 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 22/08/2024 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 54% | -0.20 |
| 24/09/2024 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 14/10/2024 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 78% | +0.15 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 80/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 125/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 60% | +0.55 |