4
Culligran
7yo Mare · 11-1 · OR 84
Warwick · Molson Coors Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Chase · 2m 4f
#2
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Worcester | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Uttoxeter | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Worcester | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Worcester | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-07-14 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-06-27 | Cartmel | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength77%
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/04/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 22/05/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 04/06/2025 | 1st | 9/5 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 27/06/2025 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 14/07/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 06/06/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 88% | +0.45 |
| 26/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 70% | +0.09 |
| 04/09/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |