5
Est Illic
12yo Gelding · 10-7 · OR 76
Warwick · Molson Coors Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Chase · 2m 4f
#5
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Bangor-on-Dee | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Worcester | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Ludlow | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-02-26 | Ludlow | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-02-11 | Hereford | 5 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength27%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2024 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 91% | +0.49 |
| 14/05/2024 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 73% | +0.31 |
| 01/06/2024 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 54% | +0.01 |
| 17/12/2025 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 15/01/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 22/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 13/05/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 06/06/2026 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 26/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |