1
Saint Arion
5yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 97
Warwick · Molson Coors Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Chase · 2m 4f
#6
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength62%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 8.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Worcester | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Market Rasen | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Worcester | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Newbury | 2 | 19th | 15th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength94%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/2026 | 19th | 125/1 | 0% | 5% | +0.05 |
| 22/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 19/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 57% | +0.15 |