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5

Esther Spring

4yo Filly · 10-5

Warwick · Jerroms Financial Group Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m

#4

Rank

Odds

125/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Well held in bumpers. Goes hurdling now and might be one for the longer term.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 14/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 2m Goo 14714/0345 @ Southwell 11/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 1m7f182y Gd 15011/0555 @ Worcester 23/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 2m Gd 14623/085projClass-projected finish: 4th of 4
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-23Worcester57th8th−1
2026-05-11Southwell56th7th−1
2026-03-14Kempton48th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0311/0523/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 40% of fieldRange 2-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength44%

Delivery trend +5.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 4. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/03/20268th125/10%22%+0.22
11/05/20266th150/10%44%+0.44
23/08/20267th80/10%33%+0.33