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Tralee Girl

4yo Filly · 10-12 · OR 115

Warwick · Jerroms Financial Group Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m

#1

Rank

Odds

4/7

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

100%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fairly useful 3-time Flat winner at around 1½m for Michael Bell and placed in listed company on first 2 starts over hurdles for this yard. Put aside a couple of disappointing runs when making the most of a good opportunity in 17f Sedgefield novice last week (made all unchallenged). The one to beat.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength76%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 27/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 68 · 1m4f51y Std 126 · beat its mark27/05/2025 · OR 68 par27/055OR 685 @ Ffos Las 29/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 75 · 1m3f209y Sft 128 · beat its mark29/06/2025 · OR 75 par3 @ Southwell 13/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 77 · 1m3f23y Std 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/07/2025 · OR 77 par13/073OR 773 @ Newmarket 16/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 76 · 1m6f GF 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/08/2025 · OR 76 par1 @ Wetherby 31/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 2m Gd 147 · HIGHER CLASS31/1011 @ Newbury 28/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 2m69y Sft 154 · HIGHER CLASS1 @ Doncaster 24/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 120 · 2m128y Sft 154 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/01/2026 · OR 120 par24/011OR 1204 @ Fakenham 06/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 118 · 2m3y Gd 151 · below its mark06/04/2026 · OR 118 par4 @ Sedgefield 14/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 115 · 2m178y Goo 158 · beat its mark14/09/2026 · OR 115 par14/094OR 115projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Sedgefield41st1st0
2026-04-06Fakenham42nd2nd0
2026-01-24Doncaster14th0th+3
2025-11-28Newbury12nd-2th+3
2025-10-31Wetherby13rd-1th+3
2025-08-16Newmarket37th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0516/0824/0114/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 4100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength77%

Delivery trend -3.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 4. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/05/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
29/06/20252nd3/184%88%+0.03
13/07/20254th14/126%70%+0.44
16/08/20257th9/153%0%-0.53
31/10/20253rd14/126%71%+0.45
28/11/20252nd3/184%91%+0.07
24/01/20264th11/271%25%-0.46
06/04/20262nd1/499%80%-0.19
14/09/20261st4/998%100%+0.02