2
Dunkerque
6yo Gelding · 11-13 · OR 132
Warwick · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 3m 1f 100y
#1
Rank
Odds
1/1
Win Prob
62%
Place Prob
56%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Perth | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Stratford | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Cartmel | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Kelso | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-11 | Southwell | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 350% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength48%
Delivery trend -9.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 3. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/02/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 27/03/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 11/04/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 11/05/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 24/05/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 0% | -0.94 |