4
Fever Dream
8yo Gelding · 10-7 · OR 112
Warwick · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 3m 1f 100y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Perth | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Warwick | 2 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-03-14 | Kempton | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Exeter | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-12 | Chepstow | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-09-16 | Uttoxeter | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 30% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength76%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 3.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05/2025 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 71% | -0.20 |
| 07/07/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 24/07/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 16/09/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 12/10/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 21/10/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 14/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 26/03/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 24/04/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |