Snipe
9yo Gelding · 11-7 · OR 126
Warwick · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 3m 1f 100y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
38%
Place Prob
44%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Worcester | 2 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-27 | Newton Abbot | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Aintree | 2 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Leicester | 5 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-02-12 | Taunton | 5 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-01-26 | Hereford | 5 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 3.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2025 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 22/11/2025 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 36% | -0.22 |
| 26/12/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 14% | -0.49 |
| 26/01/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 12/02/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 06/03/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 09/04/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 27/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 10/09/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 25% | -0.17 |