Ballylicky Bay
6yo Mare · 11-2 · OR 86
Warwick · Zulus Gonna Get Ya Mares' Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Worcester | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Worcester | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Fontwell | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Warwick | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-11-25 | Hereford | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-10-31 | Wetherby | 3 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.7% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/2025 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 31/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 25/11/2025 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 08/03/2026 | 5th | 200/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 08/04/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 22/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 90% | +0.11 |