Barafundle Bay
5yo Mare · 10-8 · OR 78
Warwick · Zulus Gonna Get Ya Mares' Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 6.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Worcester | 5 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Worcester | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Ffos Las | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-27 | Lingfield | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-11-11 | Huntingdon | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-10-23 | Southwell | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/2024 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 14/10/2024 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 22/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 23/10/2025 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 40% | +0.35 |
| 11/11/2025 | 4th | 80/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 27/11/2025 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 20/05/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 11/06/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 01/07/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |