4
Blackwater Lilly
6yo Mare · 11-10 · OR 94
Warwick · Zulus Gonna Get Ya Mares' Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Stratford | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Beverley | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-15 | Uttoxeter | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Cartmel | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fakenham | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-13 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength71%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/04/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 10/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 25/04/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 23% | -0.03 |
| 13/05/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 31/05/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 15/07/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 44% | -0.32 |
| 28/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |